Introduction
That’s the word from Hamas, naming Yahya Sinwar as its new leader in Gaza after Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated. The leadership change marks a pivotal time for the organization and the region that could affect future strategies, divisiveness, or camaraderie. This shift at the top could have a knock-on effect across Gaza’s political and social life, influencing everything from how its people live day to day to who has power in the region.
Background of Hamas
One of the biggest organizations involved in this conflict is Hamas, a Palestinian Sunni-Islamic fundamentalist militant organization. The group, founded in 1987, has been ruling Gaza since it violently took over control of the area in 2007 after clashing with Israeli forces despite being different from the Palestinian Authority. Hamas has seen leadership changes in the past, and its leaders have been instrumental in guiding the group’s policies and actions. The group has earned a reputation as an armed opponent of Israel. Still, it is also heavily involved in providing social services to the poor and dispossessed of Gaza — which complicates its place among Palestinians.
Who is Yahya Sinwar?
Born in 1962, Khan Younis–Gaza Yahya was one of the early Hamas figures. Sinwar has long been known as a doctrinaire, hardline member of Hamas who helped turn its military wing — the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades — into serial and prominent assassinators—mapping out strategies to attack Israel. Israel imprisoned him in 1988 for terrorist activities, and he was released as part of a prisoner exchange deal settlements with the Jewish state reached in 2011. He has since risen through the ranks of Hamas and is one of the main decision-makers. Sinwar’s background and history often lead to perceptions that his leadership would be more hardline and less negotiated.
Murdering Ismail Haniyeh
The problematic situation Hamas is facing includes the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, then leader of Hamas in Gaza, during a targeted operation, which created a void within the organization. The incident sent shockwaves across the region, eliciting quick reactions from different groups in Gaza and elsewhere. He was an important one — a leader who had risen to power at critical junctures and guided his people through times of war as well as peace talks. The killing not only sparked a fight within Hamas over its top leadership but has also cast doubts on stability and security in Gaza going forward.
Sinwar Appointed Gaza Chief
After Haniyeh’s assassination, Hamas immediately filled the vacuum in Gaza and appointed Yahya Sinwar as its new leader. The developments were announced to mixed reactions, reflecting the complex dynamics within Hamas and the broader Palestinian political landscape. Sinwar’s appointment suggests that we are likely to see harder lines here, given his background and record. It would also affect Hamas’ dealings with other Palestinian groups and its foreign interlocutors, pitting it either against or alongside different factions.
Implications for Gaza
His leadership is expected to translate into changes in Gaza’s policies and strategies. Sinwar boasts a proud militant past and has helped develop the Hamas military wing that has fought three wars with neighbor Israel since 2008. For example, it might change the living conditions of Gazans, who have been paying a heavy price due to consecutive wars and other forms of violence. Sinwar’s leadership may also have implications for the economic situation in Gaza; increased militarization siphons off resources from basic infrastructure and development projects.
International Reactions
The international community has closely monitored the change in leadership. Important actors, Israel and the United States to its south, as well neighbors in some of Washington’s Arab coalition partners, have issued statements making known their apprehensions/expectations. Thus, any change in the Palestinian leadership could have implications that extend beyond just Palestine, such as toward its international relations and how aid is handled to/from there, especially when many countries decide on a strategy towards Gaza/Hamas. There may be more determined diplomatic overtures as international powers attempt to head off the dangers of a harder-line leadership ruling in Gaza.
Sinwar’s Leadership Style
Yahya Sinwar, with his previous behaviors and decisions, points to a possible persistence of radicalist structures. That is a more pragmatic approach than the kind of leadership that Haniyeh was associated with on certain issues. Similarly, Sinwar may also opt to escalate military excursions further and take a more hard-line stance in negotiations. He could also play a role in defining how Hamas is governed internally, even if he does not decide for himself which aspects of its social services it runs and where to implement the organization’s political activities.
Challenges Ahead for Sinwar
As a new leader, Sinwar has a lot to deal with. Within Hamas, he has to effectively manage the intricate intra-factional politics and groups while holding everyone together in unity. Internally, he will face the unacknowledged Palestinian civil war in a somewhat new form; externally, there is also Israeli military pressure, economic sanctions, and diplomatic efforts to isolate Hamas further. Finding a balance between these internal and external pressures presents the greatest challenge for Sinwar in his attempt to secure control over Gaza by enacting the changes he wants.
Evaluations of Haniyeh’s Leadership
An alliance that typified the tough-knuckled militancy of Ismail Haniyeh, whose leadership combined a flavor of pragmatism. In contrast, Sinwar’s reign is expected to lean more towards militancy. This change could have major implications for both Hamas’s tactics in governing the areas under their control and its foreign relations. Their leadership styles reflected in comparison allow reflections on possible futures for Hamas and bring out wider questions of what it means to lead within a militant organization.
The Israel-Palestine Conflict
The power change to Sinwar at the helm might shapeshift how Israel-Palestine is consumed. A tougher posture could prompt increased friction and even escalation. Alternatively, it may prompt them to undertake fresh diplomatic efforts in order to avert an extended conflict. With Sinwar gone, peace negotiations and meeting humanitarian needs could be impacted as his approach helped to readjust the general political landscape.
Humanitarian Concerns
The change in leadership has renewed concerns about the humanitarian situation in Gaza. His militant stance can further constrain already limited access to essential services and deepen the general state of misery. These international humanitarian organizations will have to change their strategies if they are going to be able to care for these needs. Any escalation in Gaza’s militarisation under Sinwar would put even greater pressure on the Strip’s decaying infrastructure and intensify its humanitarian crisis.
Security Concerns
The leadership of Sinwar will probably produce tighter security measures in Israel. This may involve additional boots on the ground, tightened border controls, and greater use of operations in Gaza. Changes in the regional security environment may also result when neighboring states respond to possible related fragility. Sinwar’s tactics or Israel’s reaction thereof is expected to have serious implication on security dynamics in the region and hence may influence stability.
Future Prospects for Gaza
In economic terms, Gaza is in a very difficult situation during the days of his (Sinwar) rule. The Prospects Group had earlier warned the continued conflict and isolation could hamper development efforts, fuelling poverty. It can result in greater domestic and regional divides, with Sinwar policies both at home, as the security chief deals harshly with the scattered pockets of opposition to his regime. The fate of Gaza now depends on how skilfully Sinwar can navigate these new circumstantial cards and whether he has any ability at all to deliver the stability or amelioration that governance in his image might foreshadow.
Conclusion
By Erika Solomon in Beirut and Andrew England Tel Aviv Monday, 13 February 2017[FT] It is not every day that the Middle East gets a new leader who may serve as a precursor for changes to come. It will shape life in Gaza for years to come, both with internal dynamics and international relations. The rest of the world will be watching closely as this momentous transition plays out. The fact that Sinwar is leading Hamas adds significant salience to the implications his leadership could have for Gaza, as well as broader regional stability or international peace efforts.
