Introduction
It could be a consequential election, as it often is, and both parties are putting their chips on crucial states in the Midwest. Trump and Harris both have targeted Michigan and Wisconsin, states that are likely to swing the election. This article breaks down their approaches, what these states matter in overall calculus, and the balance for 2024.
Michigan and Wisconsin History
That makes Michigan and Wisconsin among the most important battlegrounds in the 2024 election. These were the pivotal states in both the 2016 and 2020 elections, so they both know that winning there is important for electoral success. These states cover all the demographics one would expect to find across America—blue-collar workers and suburban voters.
1. Michigan: A Bellwether State
Michigan swings between the parties — it has been a bellwether state in presidential elections for decades. Trump zeroes in on Michigan because he is hoping to reclaim the state, which Trump carried in 2016 and lost in 2020. Harris, meanwhile, is looking to maintain that Democratic grip on Michigan by talking about the sort of things Michiganders here care about auto industry jobs — and other industries in Detroit; healthcare (and where it comes from) for all Dems, which could be common ground with Trump;​—senior mill election process/early voting.&xda.
2. Wisconsin: The Tipping Point
In the past few elections, Wisconsin has been a tipping point — awarding its electoral votes to victors by remarkably thin margins. Wisconsin, where Trump narrowly lost in 2020 and won by double digits two later April primaries, is likely to be important for the former president’s campaign from a strategy standpoint — targeting rural voters as well as Americans who soured on President Joe Biden. Harris would plan to galvanize urban votes, especially in Milwaukee, and press issues of economic inequality and social justice.
Trump Is All In — Re-Christened Base
Donald Trump is trying to recreate the winning ’16 base in the Midwest. To the extent he talks about issues, they will almost certainly fall under three categories: economic nationalism, opposition to government mandates, and law-and-order (if Republicans are fiscally liberal but pro-policing these days). With his second campaign, Trump is almost certain to return to the themes of his first — bringing jobs back home and resisting China — while also targeting issues that have popped up since Biden took over.
1. Targeting Blue-Collar Workers
A big piece of Trump’s Midwestern strategy is his appeal to blue-collar workers, who won him states like Michigan and Wisconsin in 2016. Trump hopes to encourage a return from voters who felt that previous administrations did not value their stance on job creation and trade. Now, people all over the Midwest will hear about his promise to get jobs back from foreign manufacturing plants.
2. Leveraging Cultural Issues
Cultural questions are yet a third essential feature of Trump’s strategy. Trump is hoping to revive his base and make a clear contrast against Biden when it comes to hot-button issues such as immigration, gun rights, and religious freedom. The plan is to energize the Republican base, which is disaffected by what they see as a lurch toward the left in the Democratic party.
Harris’s Approach: Broadening The Coalition
Previewing some of her strategic thinking, Harris’s approach in Michigan and Wisconsin is all about expanding the Democratic coalition. Her campaign will be peaking for issues that resonate with voters from young progressives to more moderate, older Democrats. Harris’s task—though she may have set herself up for it by reinforcing a difficult image of anecdote-based popularity—is to draw together those disparate groups while tackling the kitchen table issues that matter to voters here.
1. Engaging Minority Communities
Harris, the first female vice president of color to take office in January, has an opening with minority communities in Michigan and Wisconsin—vital constituencies for Democrats. Her campaign will probably echo themes of voting rights, criminal justice reform, and access to health care—issues that motivate African American, Latino, and Asian American voters. Harris is pitching her strengths on those fronts in part to build turnout among minority voters, who are key elements of victory in these states.
2. Appealing to Suburban Voters
Suburban voters, especially women, were key to the 2020 election, and she will need them again if she is running in 2024. Her campaign will focus on issues like education, health care, and gun control that resonate with suburban families. How many of these voters Harris can connect with — and quell their fears about the economy, public safety issues, etc– will make or break her candidacy in much of the Midwest.
Wider Implications for 2024
This is what makes the Midwest — and Michigan and Wisconsin in particular — so front-and-center for 2024. Both Trump and Harris seem to understand that winning these states (and the three or four other close tossups) could be necessary to achieve victory. This election will decide the future of these states, and it can be a bellwether for the entire nation.
Conclusion
When the 2024 election comes, Michigan and Wisconsin will once again be political battleground box seats. Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are using strategies with data to court voters in these top priority states. As Trump attempts to resurrect his fan base through a traditional, aggressive cultural wedge playing for Midwest regions, Harris’ only chance of winning these key states owned by the Democrats is going big and expanding on it with minority as well suburban voters. The stakes of the Midwest battle are high, and its consequences will ripple throughout America for generations to come.
